On Thursday (November 30th) in the European market, spot gold rapidly declined in the short term, with gold prices just falling below the $2040/ounce mark and currently dropping to around $2038/ounce. On this trading day, investors will receive key US PCE inflation data and speeches from the Federal Reserve's "number three figure" Williams, which are expected to trigger the gold market.
Analysts pointed out that the US dollar index has experienced a strong rebound, currently approaching 103.30 and rising by over 40 points within the day. The strengthening of the US dollar has put pressure on gold prices.
FXStreet analyst Dhwani Mehta pointed out that gold buyers have become cautious before the release of US PCE inflation data.
As more and more people believe that the Federal Reserve may shift towards a dovish stance and cut interest rates as early as March 2024, gold traders are looking forward to the Fed's favorite inflation indicator. Despite the upward revision of the US gross domestic product (GDP) data for the third quarter, the market expects a 49% likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March next year.
The second estimated report released by the US Department of Commerce on Wednesday showed that the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter increased by 5.2% year-on-year, higher than the initial estimate of 4.9% and also higher than the 5% predicted by economists surveyed by Dow Jones.
At 21:30 Hong Kong time on Thursday, the United States will release the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for October. As the most favored inflation indicator by the Federal Reserve, the year-on-year changes in the core PCE price index have a significant impact on policymakers.
According to authoritative media surveys, the PCE price index in the United States is expected to increase by 3.0% year-on-year in October, compared to a 3.4% increase in September. The core PCE price index in the United States is expected to rise by 3.5% year-on-year in October, compared to a 3.7% increase in September.
Mehta stated that weaker than expected core PCE data may increase expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, thereby restoring the downward trend of the US dollar.
Mehta added that in addition to the US PCE inflation data, the US initial jobless claims data and speeches by Federal Reserve officials may also provide new implications for the US interest rate outlook, thereby affecting gold prices denominated in US dollars.
At 22:15 Hong Kong time on Thursday, New York Fed Chairman Williams will deliver a keynote speech at the Bretton Woods Committee's "Exploring Central Bank Innovation" meeting.
Williams has permanent voting rights in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the United States and is considered the "third person" of the Federal Reserve, so his speech carries considerable weight.
Analysis of the Latest Technology Prospects of Gold
Mehta pointed out that gold prices seem to be in a tricky position because there is a greater possibility of a fall in gold prices before a new upward trend begins.
On the 14th, the relative strength index (RSI) remained in the overbought area, supporting the reason for a pullback in gold prices.
However, the 50 day moving average is seeking to close above the 200 day moving average, and if this happens, it will confirm a "golden cross".
Mehta stated that any decline in gold prices could therefore be seen as a good buying opportunity, paving the way for a new round of upward momentum.
On the upward side, Mehta stated that if the gold price breaks through the multi month high of $2052 per ounce, it will trigger a new round of upward momentum and move towards the static resistance level of $2070 per ounce.
The historical high of $2079 per ounce will be the next target for gold buyers.
On the downside, the short-term support level was seen at yesterday's low of $2035 per ounce. If it falls below this level, gold prices may test Tuesday's low of $2012 per ounce.
Looking further down, the $2000/ounce mark may save gold buyers.
At 18:15 Hong Kong time, spot gold was trading at $2037.83 per ounce.
