On Thursday (November 30th) during Asian trading hours, Asian stock markets rose and will lock in the strongest monthly performance in 10 months, as the global interest rate outlook is relatively mild and there are signs of economic recovery, leading to increased investor sentiment.
As of the time of publication, the MSCI Asia ex Japan stock index has risen 0.1%, with a cumulative increase of 6.9% so far this month, and is expected to achieve its best monthly performance since January this year.
The South Korean Composite Stock Index led the Asian stock market with a 10.6% increase this month, followed closely by Japan's Nikkei Index.
This month, due to the expectation that the Federal Reserve interest rate will peak, the yield of US dollar and US bond will fall, and the loose financial environment, the stock market will perform strongly.
Sydney Ord Minnett investment advisor John Milroy said, "It seems that market participants have a strong belief in the situation where the economy is not landing hard and the Federal Reserve is ending interest rate hikes."
Milroy said, "Inflation and the bond market indicate that the central bank should at least suspend the interest rate hike cycle. The market welcomes this."
Waller's residual waves still exist
Despite mixed messages from Federal Reserve officials on Wednesday, investors still pay attention to the comments made by Federal Reserve Director Waller on Tuesday. Waller has influence at the Federal Reserve and previously held an hawkish stance. Waller has stated that if inflation continues to slow down, interest rates may begin to be lowered within a few months.
Meanwhile, data from the United States shows that the economy was strong in the third quarter, with inflation showing a downward trend, reinforcing speculation that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates earlier than expected.
"We believe that liquidity and momentum will continue to support the market throughout December," said Redmond Wong, market strategist at Shengbao Securities in Greater China. Due to signs of a slowdown in the US economy, the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates as early as the first quarter.
The US personal consumption expenditure inflation report will be released on Thursday. In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will also give a speech on Friday, and is expected to provide important insights on the Fed's policy direction before the December meeting.
According to Goldman Sachs data, the financial situation in the United States is the most relaxed since early September, with a decline of 100 basis points in just one month. The bank's global and emerging market indices slightly increased last week, but the financial environment is also about 100 basis points more relaxed than a month ago.
The current trend of the US interest rate futures market shows that the rate cut next year will exceed 100 basis points, starting from May. The yield of two-year US treasury bond bonds was the lowest level since July, falling nearly 40 basis points this week alone.
"If it weren't for the Federal Reserve's rapid easing policy, we expect the stock market to face a more challenging macro background next year, with consumer trends expected to weaken as investor positions and sentiment largely reverse," said JPMorgan analysts in a report on the global outlook for 2024
JPMorgan Chase said, "The stock market is currently overvalued, with volatility approaching historical lows, while geopolitical and political risks remain high. We expect global profit growth to be weak, and the stock market will decline from its current level."
Prior to the expected reduction in production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries+Group, oil prices rose by over $1 on Wednesday and have since stabilized. US and Japanese crude oil narrowed its decline, rising 0.23% to $78.04 per barrel, while Brent crude oil fell 0.18% to $82.95 per barrel.
Spot gold has slightly declined, currently trading around $2045.
