On Wednesday (September 13th), in late US trading, spot gold prices closed near $1907 per ounce. According to data from the US Department of Labor, the core CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.3% month on month in August, slightly higher than the 0.2% increase expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. This number increased by 4.3% compared to the same period last year, in line with expectations. The overall data rose 0.6% last month, in line with Dow Jones' expectations. The overall price increased by 3.7% year-on-year, higher than economists' expected 3.6%. The CPI data is basically in line with expectations, indicating that FOMC expects to maintain interest rate stability and provide support for gold. Traders have stronger expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting from September 19th to 20th, with a 61% chance of suspending interest rates in November. The rise in interest rates has pushed up the yield of competitive safe haven US treasury bond bonds, attracting investors away from zero interest gold. Some analysts believe that; Gold investors are not too worried about rising inflation, but are more concerned about the opportunity cost of holding interest free assets in an environment of rising interest rates. Investors are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's policy decision on September 20th and the European Central Bank's interest rate hike decision on Thursday. In order to better understand the trend of gold prices in the later stage.
Technical analysis of gold: The gold daily line is in the stage of peaking and falling, successfully falling below the 1915-1930 range, maintaining a dead cross trend in the MA5-MA10 moving average, and the MACD green bar can start to increase volume; The weekly trend is also in a fluctuating downward pattern, with the three tracks of the Bollinger Belt opening downwards at the same time, and the downward trend is expected to further decline. At present, it has repeatedly hit the 1930 level and retreated, falling below the critical watershed of 1915 as scheduled, with the lowest point reaching around 1905. Just as the limit approached the 1900 level, there was buying support, and the decline did not continue well. The 4-hour cycle forms a continuous positive trend at a low level. Although Brin spoke, he did not form an absolute weak unilateral trend. Therefore, this wave of weakness is likely to be a oscillatory weakness.
The upper short-term focus is on the resistance on the 1915-1918 front line, while the lower short-term focus is on the support on the 1893-1890 front line,
On Wednesday (September 13th), in late US trading, international crude oil prices closed near $88.20 per barrel. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its latest report, predicting crude oil prices and production for 2023 and 2024. The forecast points out that the global oil market is facing a tight supply situation, which directly affects the trend of oil prices. At the same time, the market will closely monitor inflation data in the United States. If the data is higher than expected, it may suppress international crude oil prices, as market speculation about the Federal Reserve raising interest rates increases, leading to the appreciation of the US dollar. In terms of global oil market supply and demand, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated in its latest report that although crude oil production has increased and demand for refined oil remains weak, it is expected that the global oil market will experience a shortage of supply by the end of 2023. Although global production is expected to increase, the supply and demand gap will widen in the fourth quarter. This will put upward pressure on oil prices, but it is also necessary to closely monitor the impact of global economic growth and political factors on the oil market. The inflation data from the United States will also become a market focus, which may affect the trend of oil prices.
Technical analysis of crude oil; Yesterday, crude oil closed on the Little Yin Star K-line, but after a slight increase, it still returned to its range. The daily line is in the midst of continuous consolidation of the Star K-line. Short-term measures can be slowed down, and they are being sorted and corrected. On the trend, it is still the consolidation and correction in the bullish trend, and of course, it does not rule out the correction of going out of the exploration high and retreating. After the current pause, there are various changes. The daily line is waiting for the physical K-line to break the current deadlock in consolidation. The 4-hour Tubulin Road began to close, but it was still under pressure after hitting the upper track yesterday. After a slight increase, it fell back, causing a slight deviation in the MACD index. Currently, the contraction and consolidation are underway, and the 4-hour map still needs time to digest. In the short term, it may temporarily remain in the range of sawing and lateral oscillations. On the upper track, focus on 87.0 from 90.0 to the lower track, and temporarily maintain the range of oscillations in the short term.
Focus on the resistance line from 90.5 to 90.3 above,
Pay attention to the frontline support of 86.5-86.3 below.
Ai Hui Cha Reminder Daily Watch
