On Friday (December 8th) in the European market, spot gold maintained a slight rebound trend during the day, with gold prices currently reporting around $2031 per ounce. On this trading day, gold traders will focus on the US non farm payroll report, which is expected to trigger a major gold price trend.
FXTree analyst Dhwani Mehta said that so far on Friday, gold prices have continued to fluctuate within a range around $2030 per ounce. The US dollar is "licking the wound", while the yield of US treasury bond bonds has maintained a recovery trend. The technical side of gold sends a bullish signal, and a weak US non farm payroll report is expected to stimulate an increase in gold prices.
Mehta pointed out that if the US non farm payroll data performs weakly, gold prices are expected to exceed $2050 per ounce.
At 21:30 Hong Kong time on Friday, investors will receive the US November non farm payroll report. According to authoritative media surveys, the non farm employment population in the United States is expected to increase by 180000 after the November quarterly adjustment, compared to an increase of 150000 in October. The US unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.9% in November.
Investors will also pay attention to salary data. A survey shows that the average hourly wage rate in the United States is expected to increase by 0.3% per month and 4.0% per year in November.
The highly anticipated US labor market data will be closely monitored in search of new clues about the outlook for the Federal Reserve's interest rates. The market expects a probability of a rate cut in March next year to be about 60%.
Mehta stated that the latest vacancy data for ADP and JOLTS positions in the United States shows a loosening of the labor market conditions. If the weak US nonfarm employment data confirms this, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates may surge, which will hit the yield of the US dollar and US treasury bond bonds. In this case, the gold price may regain the $2050/ounce mark.
Mehta added that, on the contrary, if non farm data exceeds expectations, the market may use this as an excuse to take profits before the Federal Reserve makes a decision. At that time, the gold price may resume its adjustment trend towards the $2000/ounce mark.
Karl Schamotta, Chief Market Strategist at Corpay, believes that Friday may see weaker non farm data than market expectations.
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Mehta pointed out that from the daily chart, it can be seen that gold prices have been hitting higher lows since Monday's volatile trading, indicating that there is still more room for upward movement in gold prices.
The relative strength index (RSI) on the 14th was slightly higher than the median, supporting the bullish potential of gold prices.
Mehta stated that gold buyers need to break through the $2050/ounce range in order to further move towards the $2100/ounce mark.
Once the gold price reaches $2100 per ounce, new buying opportunities will emerge, with a target of a historic high of $2144 per ounce.
On the other hand, Mehta pointed out that the short-term support level for gold prices is seen at Tuesday's low of $2009 per ounce. If it falls below this level, then $2000 per ounce will be a key test for bullish traders, and this level is also where the 21 day simple moving average (SMA) is located.
Afterwards, the next support for gold prices is expected to be $1980 per ounce.
At 18:14 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at 2030.76 US dollars per ounce.
