WTI crude oil has formed higher lows and higher highs in its short-term upward channel pattern, and the price is currently being tested for support. A rebound from the $75.50 per barrel region may be enough to stimulate upward movement to nearby resistance levels.
The top of this channel is located near the main psychological threshold of $80 per barrel, but there are also upward obstacles in the middle area of the channel at $78 per barrel or at the dynamic turning point of the moving average.
A 100 moving average below the 200 moving average indicates that the path with the least resistance is downward, or that channel support is more likely to be broken. If this situation occurs, the rise in crude oil prices may experience a reversal. The price has already fallen below these two technical indicators, which is an early sign of selling pressure.
However, random indicators indicate that the seller is oversold or depleted, so an increase means that the buyer is making a profit. Similarly, an upward pull in RSI indicates an increase in upward pressure, and there is room for improvement in this indicator before reflecting overbought conditions.
Crude oil may face greater downward pressure. The US Department of Energy reported that inventory increased by 1.6 million barrels, higher than the expected 100000 barrels, and demand improved from the previous 8.7 million barrels.
Looking ahead, PMI data for the US manufacturing and service industries may determine the direction of crude oil prices. Analysts predict that the contraction rate of both industries will slow down in November. The improvement in these two industries may mean an increase in demand for fuel and energy commodities, which could be beneficial for oil. On the other hand, weak data may indicate a weakening of future purchasing activity.
Morgan Stanley stated that OPEC+'s commitment to new production cuts seems uncertain and is expected to only be partially complied with. It is expected that the crude oil market will experience a slight surplus again in the second and third quarters of 2024. Maintain the forecast for Brent crude oil prices for the full year of 2024 at $85 per barrel.
In the European market, Brent crude oil futures, the main force, broke through the $81.00/barrel mark during trading, with the latest price of $80.53/barrel, a decrease of 0.41% on the day.
