International gold prices fell 0.4% on Thursday (November 30) and closed at $2035.75 per ounce.
The monthly rate of the US October core PCE price index released on Thursday recorded 0.2%, in line with market expectations, with a previous value of 0.3%; The core PCE price index in the United States recorded an annual rate of 3.5% in October, in line with market expectations, with a previous value of 3.7%; The monthly personal expenditure rate in the United States for October recorded 0.2%, which is in line with market expectations, with a previous value of 0.7%. Some comments suggest that consumer spending in the United States grew moderately in October, with the PCE annual rate being the lowest since early 2021, and signs of cooling demand may further strengthen expectations that the Fed's interest rate hike has ended. The slowdown in consumer spending reflects the impact of rising interest rates and the depletion of surplus savings in low-income households. Although the wage level is still at a high level, the increase has slowed down compared to earlier this year as the labor market slows down. Due to concerns that the economy may fall into recession in early 2024, American households may be unwilling to consume and instead increase their savings. Economists mostly have growth expectations for the fourth quarter below 2%. Cooling demand may also help policymakers believe that inflationary pressures will continue to weaken, thereby strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve has ended interest rate hikes. However, although Thursday's data shows that inflation is still slowing down, the magnitude of the slowdown is limited. Therefore, I believe that this data is not enough to shake the idea of Federal Reserve decision-makers maintaining high interest rates. On Friday evening, Powell will also give a speech on currency issues. Be careful not to pour cold water on Powell's view of the market's expectation of no further interest rate hikes. If so, the US dollar is expected to continue to rebound, and gold may face the risk of short-term profit taking adjustments. On the contrary, if Powell accidentally lets out the sound of a pigeon, gold is highly likely to soar.
In terms of technical graphics, the daily chart shows a negative line, but it does not have a significant impact on the daily moving average. The current daily moving average is arranged in a more regular and upward divergent manner, maintaining a higher level of daily chart guidance for reference. The hourly chart shows that the current high consolidation of gold prices intensifies the narrowing pattern of the hourly moving average, indicating a risk of adjustment and falling in the short term. The current short-term initial support level is at $2037.00. If it falls below this level, it will put bearish pressure on gold prices for the day. The goal is to test the $2020.00/ounce range, and further decline may even extend to $2009.30/ounce. Overall, as long as gold remains above the $2000 mark, it is expected to continue to rise in the future.
