On Wednesday (November 22), as economic data showed that consumers' inflation expectations in the next year had further risen, some traders took profits from the dovish bets of the Federal Reserve, and the yield of US treasury bond bonds rose.
Trading was light before the Thanksgiving holiday, and the yield of two-year US treasury bond bonds hovered around 4.9%. The S&P 500 index slightly rose. Amazon's sales climbed before Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Microsoft rose on the news that Sam Altman will re lead OpenAI. NVIDIA's stock price fell after announcing its results.
In terms of data, the final consumer confidence index released by the University of Michigan in November was 61.3, slightly higher than the initial value of 60.4, but still lower than October's 63.8. It is also worth noting that consumers' expectations for long-term inflation have remained stable at their highest level since 2011. Consumers expect an inflation rate of 3.2% over the next five years, higher than last month's 3%. In the short term, consumer inflation expectations have risen from 4.2% in October to 4.5%. This marks the highest one-year inflation expectation since April 2023. According to new data from the US Department of Labor, as of the week ending November 18th, the number of initial jobless claims was 209000. This is a decrease from the 231000 people who applied the previous week.
Due to a decrease in commercial aircraft bookings and weakened demand for commercial equipment, durable goods orders in the United States fell more than expected in October.
Quincy Krosby, Chief Global Strategist at LPL Financial, said, "This is not good news for the data dependent Federal Reserve because they do not want to see consumer inflation expectations become unstable because historically, adjusting consumer psychology to a lower inflation environment has become increasingly difficult
RBC Capital Markets analyst Lori Calvasina said that the US stock market continued its November gains. With the help of positive emotions and flexible valuations, the S&P 500 index will rise to a historic high next year.
Lori Calvasina wrote in a report: "The sentiment currently established in the market is constructive, and the proven reliable investor interest indicator for 2023 is currently within a range that typically accompanies a 10% increase in the S&P 500 index over the next 12 months
In other aspects, due to the postponement of the OPEC+meeting scheduled for the weekend, oil prices plummeted, reducing traders' expectations that OPEC will intervene to tighten supply.
On Wednesday, gold prices slightly rose, staying above $2000. Silver prices have also slightly increased. The recent chart trends of both metals have become more bullish this week, which has attracted technical traders to long gold and silver. There are also reports this week that countries such as India have increased physical demand for gold. The December deposit finally rose by $2.30 to $2003.90. In December, silver finally rose by 0.046 US dollars to 23.915 US dollars.
In the foreign exchange market, the Canadian dollar is the strongest major currency, while the Japanese yen is the weakest. The US dollar rose during the US trading session, thanks to a reversal in yield after an earlier decline.
Focus and wind vane of Thursday trading day:
① 16:15 Initial value of manufacturing PMI in November in France
② 16:30 Initial PMI of Manufacturing Industry in Germany in November
③ 17:00 Eurozone November Manufacturing PMI Initial Value
④ 17:30 UK Manufacturing PMI for November
⑤ 17:30 UK November Service Industry PMI
⑥ 20:30 European Central Bank releases minutes of its October monetary policy meeting
Analysis of Major Currency Trends:
EUR: EUR/USD up, closing at 1.0888, down 0.21%. Technically, the initial resistance to the upward trend of the exchange rate is at 1.0851, the further resistance is at 1.0816, and the key resistance is at 1.0780; The initial support for the downward trend of the exchange rate is at 1.0922, further support is at 1.0958, and more critical support is at 1.0993.
GBP: GBP/USD fell, closing at 1.2493, a decrease of 0.13%. Technically, the initial resistance to the upward trend of the exchange rate is at 1.2444, the further resistance is at 1.2396, and the key resistance is at 1.2343; The initial support for the downward trend of the exchange rate is at 1.2546, further support is at 1.2598, and more critical support is at 1.2647.
JPY: USD/JPY closed higher at 149.533, up 0.78%. Technically, the initial resistance to the upward trend of the exchange rate is at 148.44, further resistance is at 147.358, and the key resistance is at 146.703; The initial support for the downward trend of the exchange rate is at 150.177, further support is at 150.832, and more critical support is at 151.914.
