Recently, Goldman Sachs Group, a leading global financial institution, released a forecast for the US stock market in 2024. This report shows that the US economy has avoided predictions of a recession in 2023 and is beginning to take a firm foothold.
Surprisingly, the growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was much stronger than expected. However, this did not prevent a rebalancing of the labor market or a sustained decline in inflation. Goldman Sachs research experts predict that the US GDP will grow by 2.1% year-on-year in 2024.
In addition, the company's economists expect consumption to increase by 2% and actual disposable income to increase by about 3%. They also expect that once the inflation rate drops below 2.5%, the Federal Open Market Committee will cut interest rates for the first time in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Interestingly, this report indicates that only 7 stocks hold the largest share of the market value of the S&P 500 index. Analysts refer to the "Great Seven" as large technology companies, namely Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and NVDA.
Goldman Sachs' research further shows that these mentioned stocks rose by 71%, while other stock indices only rose by 6%. So far this year, the market value distribution of the S&P 500 index has increased by approximately 19%.
The Goldman Sachs research team, led by Chief US Stock Strategist David Kostin, stated that the performance of the so-called seven major stocks defines the stock market in 2023. Analysis shows how these stocks outperform other listed stocks. From 2013 to 2019, the compound annual growth rate of these seven stocks was 15%.
