Analysis of gold news: In the US market on Thursday (September 21), after the Federal Reserve strengthened its hawkish stance on interest rates, the gold price continued to decline, dragged by the soaring yield of US dollars and US bonds. As of press release, spot gold is currently trading at $1916.25 per ounce, with a daily decline of 0.73%. The Federal Reserve's interest rate remains unchanged this week, but its latest quarterly forecast suggests that it may raise interest rates again this year and maintain interest rate tightening until 2024. Gold traders keep in mind the Fed's long-term bullish message, forcing bullish gold bulls to lower their enthusiasm. The US dollar has climbed to a six month high, putting pressure on interest free gold bars denominated in US dollars.
The signal released by the previous Federal Reserve resolution was more hawkish than expected, leading to a continued decline in gold prices on Thursday. The surge in US dollar and US Treasury yields has put pressure on gold prices, and the latest quarterly forecast from the Federal Reserve suggests that interest rates may be raised again this year and kept unchanged until 2024. After a two-day meeting, the Federal Reserve issued a statement stating that the latest indicators show a steady expansion of economic activity, job growth has slowed down in recent months but remains strong, unemployment remains low, and inflation remains high.
The Federal Reserve has strengthened its strong monetary policy stance, and officials are increasingly convinced that this stance can successfully reduce inflation without damaging the economy or causing significant unemployment. In addition to possibly raising interest rates again this year, the latest forecast from the Federal Reserve shows that by 2024, interest rates will be much tighter than previously expected. Chairman Powell held a press conference after the meeting, and he made it clear at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting at the end of last month that he would maintain restrictive monetary policy until he was confident that inflation would continue to slow down towards the authorities' target level, and would raise interest rates if necessary.
Technical analysis of gold: Currently, gold is still affected by a slightly volatile trend at the daily level. In the 4-hour level, the price has fallen below the important support level of the 1930 area in the early stage, and the K-line continues to be suppressed by the short-term moving average. The small rebound within the day is also the process of completing the technical form repair. From the short-term trend, there is a possibility that gold will continue to decline after completing its rebound repair. In addition, the hourly trend is currently in a narrow range of low volatility. Although there have been some rebounds in the session, the strength and duration are not too large, and the trend will continue to be weak in the short term.
From the perspective of the gold 4-hour level, the random indicator dead cross is downward, and the MACD double line top deviates, indicating that the gold price may experience a short-term rebound adjustment. After the announcement of the interest rate resolution, Powell began to speak and gold began to experience a significant pullback. In early trading today, the gold price has reached my first target position of 1915. If gold falls again in the future, the probability of breaking through 1910 will be very high. Due to the fact that there are still about ten days left before the National Day holiday, I guess gold may continue to decline during these ten days until the arrival of the National Day holiday. Overall, 1930 remains a key choice for the weekly closing direction, and whether it can rely on the rhythm of stabilizing and continuing the early multi head counterattack to conduct a final inspection is crucial. In the short term, the lower part of the day should focus on the support of the 1908-05 region, while the upper part should focus on the stabilization of the second breakthrough in 1930. The upper short-term focus is on the resistance on the 1933-1930 front line, while the lower short-term focus is on the support on the 1910-1908 front line.
Analysis of crude oil news: On Thursday (September 21), US crude oil prices were trading near $89.6 per barrel in the US market. Currently, oil prices have closed at their first physical negative line in several days, indicating a cooling of market sentiment. After the oil price rose and fell on Tuesday night, crude oil continued to decline during the Asian session on Wednesday. In just 24 hours, the oil price fell by $3, indicating a significant fluctuation in the high level. This indicates that the market has accumulated a lot of float after a continuous rise in the past period, and the continuous adjustment demand has triggered profit departure actions, bringing uncertainty to oil price fluctuations. Recently, major investment banks have shown significant differences in their views on the future market of oil prices. Some are optimistic that oil prices will break through $100, while others are judging that the effect of production cuts has already been priced. The probability of oil prices peaking and falling back in the later stage is high, which also reflects the increasing variables in the future market as oil prices reach high areas. Overall, due to the tight supply situation being the core influencing factor for oil prices at this stage, there are mostly optimistic views. However, some institutions have also begun to raise warnings about possible changes in the future situation of oil prices. Although the oil price has rapidly rebounded in the short term, it has not shaken the strong pattern of oil prices. Such a sharp drop helps to release adjustment demand, which currently still belongs to the normal scope of technical adjustment. Against the backdrop of continuous inventory reduction, the probability of oil price peaking is not high, and there needs to be a process for investors' emotions and perspectives to shift. Recently, oil prices are prone to significant fluctuations at high levels, so pay attention to the rhythm.
Technical analysis of crude oil: Yesterday, crude oil continued to decline with the medium negative line, while the daily double negative line rose and fell. Combined with the previous day's cross K line, local correction was made. There is still further downward space for the Japanese K-line combination. The 4-hour chart yesterday inverted the pressure near the mid rail and then converted back down, overall in line with expectations. The secondary rebound and pressure of the K-line structure continued the previous day's pullback pattern, accompanied by a further conversion and decline under the secondary pressure. Although it failed to break the low and decline, it closed at a low level. Today's opening still showed weakness, and the short-term bearish mentality continued to remain unchanged for the day.
The upper short-term focus is on the first line of resistance between 90.9 and 90.7,
Below, focus on the first line support of 88.5-88.2 in the short term.
