1、 Market Review
Overnight international precious metal futures closed slightly lower, with COMEX gold futures falling 0.04% to $1952.6 per ounce and COMEX silver futures falling 0.1% to $23.475 per ounce.
The main contract price of the Shanghai Futures Exchange overnight rose 0.47% to 470.5 yuan/gram; The main contract price of Shanghai Bank on the Shanghai Stock Exchange rose 0.51% to 5880 yuan/kg.
2、 Fundamental data
On the previous trading day, the gold inventory of the previous exchange was 2661 kilograms, which was unchanged from the previous trading day; The silver inventory of the previous exchange was 1287 tons, which was -26 tons compared to the previous trading day.
COMEX's gold inventory on the previous trading day was 20.94 million troy ounces, up from+6 million troy ounces on the previous trading day; COMEX silver inventory is 274.04 million troy ounces,+1.66 million troy ounces compared to the previous trading day.
On the previous trading day, the SPDR gold ETF held 878.83 tons, which was -1.44 tons compared to the previous trading day; SLV's silver ETF position was 14000.73 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day.
In the week of September 12th, COMEX held 123864 non commercial net long positions in gold, compared to the previous week of -14142 positions; COMEX silver's non commercial net long position was 18033, compared to the previous week's -8771 positions.
The overnight US bond yield collectively rose, with the two-year US bond yield rising 3.9 basis points to 5.101%, and the 10-year US bond yield rising 5.8 basis points to 4.366%; The US dollar index rose 0.07% to 105.15. Overnight, all three major US stock indices closed lower, with the Dow down 0.31% to 34517.73 points, the S&P 500 down 0.22% to 4443.95 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.23% to 13678.19 points.
On the previous trading day, the WIND photovoltaic index closed at 3703.92, down 1.48%; The electronic component index closed at 6713.62, down 1.08%.
3、 Comprehensive analysis
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has released an economic outlook report, raising its global growth forecast for 2023 from 2.7% to 3%, but lowering its growth forecast for 2024 from 2.9% to 2.7%. The economic growth expectations of the United States have been raised this year and next, while the growth forecasts for the eurozone have been lowered. Among them, the GDP forecast for Germany in 2023 has been lowered to a contraction of 0.2%, making it the only major economy expected to fall into recession this year. The global economy is still facing recession pressure, and precious metals may still have room for upward growth.
In addition, according to the US Treasury Department, the total amount of US treasury bond bonds exceeded 33 trillion US dollars for the first time on September 18. If Congress fails to pass long-term funding bills or short-term spending bills before September 30th, the government will face a shutdown crisis. In July, China held US $821.8 billion in treasury bond, reducing its holdings of US treasury bond for four consecutive months, hitting a new low since May 2009. US Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that there is no sign that the US economy is about to enter a recession, and the labor market is weakening, but it is still in a "healthy" state, with industrial output increasing and inflation decreasing.
European Central Bank regulator Kazmir stated that he hopes the September rate hike will be the last, but the possibility of further rate hikes cannot be ruled out. Previously, the European Central Bank unexpectedly announced a rate hike and hinted at its end. This was the 10th consecutive rate hike by the European Central Bank, exceeding market expectations. The European Central Bank stated in a statement that key interest rates have reached a certain level and, if maintained for a sufficient period of time, will make a significant contribution to restoring inflation to its target. European Central Bank President Lagarde stated that inflation has remained at a high level for a long time and is determined to ensure that inflation returns to the 2% target.
Previously, the US PPI in August increased by 1.6% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 1.2% and previous value of 0.8%; The month on month increase of 0.7% also exceeded expectations of 0.4%. Previously, inflation rebounded in the United States in August, with CPI rising 3.7% year-on-year, slightly higher than market expectations of 3.6%. The core CPI of the United States increased by 4.3% year-on-year in August, a slight decrease from the previous value of 4.7%; The month on month increase was 0.3%. At present, the core inflation rate in the United States in August is still much higher than the long-term target set by the Federal Reserve of 2%. This means that although the Federal Reserve may maintain the federal funds rate unchanged at the September monetary policy meeting, there is still a possibility of another rate hike in the next two meetings. There may still be support below the US dollar index, long-term US bond yields, and US real interest rates, and precious metal futures prices may still be under pressure in the short to medium term. However, in the long run, inflation in the United States has significantly cooled, and the Federal Reserve's current interest rate hike cycle is nearing its end. The market expects the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates as early as next year. There is still room below the US dollar index, long-term US bond yields, and US real interest rates, and precious metals, as interest free assets, still have high diversification value.
Based on the above and combined with technical aspects, today's precious metal futures prices may be supported by downward deposits. It is recommended that investors focus on buying long on dips, and arbitrageurs can choose the opportunity to participate in the 12-02 reverse arbitrage operation, paying attention to stopping gains and losses.
