7月5日，美联储公布了其6月货币政策会议的纪要。大部分官员们推测，今年内仍将有加息行动。然而，值得一提的是，在上月的利率会议中，美联储将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在5%-5.25%，并没有进行加息。这是自2022年3月以来，美联储首次决定暂停加息。有關此事的詳情，紀要指出：“考慮到過去一年美聯儲的加息幅度和速度，以及這些措施對經濟的影響需要時間，幾乎與會者都認為6月暫停加息是適當或可以接受的。”这给予官员们更多的时间来观察并评估经济实现很大就业和价格稳定目标的进度。尽管如此，18名参会官员中仍有人倾向于在6月就加息25个基点。他们的理由是，经济活动的势头比预期更强，且几乎没有明确的迹象表明，随着时间的推移，通胀正朝着委员会2%的目标回落。通胀--ETO外汇回顧今年以來，官员们普遍认为，进一步收紧政策可能是适当的，但是速度将慢于自去年3月以来的快速加息。参会者中有16人预计今年至少会有一次加息，其中12人预计会有两次或更多的加息。Given the rate at which the Fed has tightened monetary policy stance last year, many officials also pointed out that it is appropriate to further slow down the tightening pace to ha ve more time to observe the effects of accumulated rate hikes and to assess their impacts on policy.Meeting minutes also indicate that the effect of monetary policy on the economy's lag is uncertain. Although overall inflation has eased in the past year, core inflation has not shown a continuous easing trend since the beginning of the year. “The economy is facing adverse factors brought about by credit tightening, including rising household and corporate rates, which may put pressure on economic activity, employment and inflation, although the extent of these impacts is still uncertain.”鉴于劳动力市场状况的持续强劲以及消费者支出的弹性，大多数官员们认为，经济继续缓慢增长并避免衰退的可能性，与出现温和衰退的可能性相当。对于外汇市场来说，美联储的货币政策决策是一个重要的影响因素。随着美联储加息的预期增强，这无疑会给全球外汇市场带来新的挑战和机遇。对于那些关注全球货币政策动态的ETO外汇投资者来说，理解并推测美联储的货币政策变化对于他们制定投资策略至关重要。货币--ETO外汇美聯儲的加息預期會引發美元相對其他貨幣的升值壓力，這可能對ETO外匯投資者的投資組合產生深遠影響。投资者需要密切关注美联储的政策动态，以便对可能出现的市场波动作出快速且准确的响应。However, it is important to note that the pace of rate hikes has slowed down compared to last year. This indicates a cautious stance by the Fed, reflecting the uncertainties in the global economic outlook, and the possible impacts of credit tightening on economic activity, employment, and inflation.正如纪要所指出，“经济正面临信贷紧缩带来的不利因素，包括家庭和企业利率上升，这可能会对经济活动、招聘和通胀造成压力，尽管这些影响的程度仍不确定。”
