SEB: ECB policy rate may have peaked

Ai Huicha, August 25, SEB strategists wrote in a report that the outcome of the ECB's September meeting will depend largely on new forecasts from ECB staff. They reiterated the view that policy rates may have peaked and that another rate hike in the fall is less likely. After weaker economic indicators, the market is pricing in only 8 basis points of rate hikes by the ECB in September and 14 basis points in the fall. SEB strategists expect the ECB to cut rates for the first time in mid-2024.